Tuesday, May 31, 2016

SPX and BKX: The Canary Hasn't Died Yet

Last update, we discussed using BKX as a canary and trade signal, and concluded with:  "Of course, if BKX fails to make a new low here, then we'd have no impulsive declines to signify a turn was underway yet." 

Unfortunately for bears, BKX did not make a new low during Friday's session, so there is as yet no confirmation of a turn, and thus no clear signal to act against.  That could, of course, change during today's session, but as of this moment, the market has reserved the right to run higher if it so desires:

On SPX, bears are running out of real estate for the C-wave.  On the plus side, we're finally into territory that qualifies as "lower risk."  Lower risk does not guarantee the market will move in your favor -- it just means that if it moves against you, you lose less than you would have if you jumped the gun and entered too early.

In conclusion, there's still no material change.  If the C-wave is going to pan out, then bears need to make a stand fairly directly.  As of yet, though, the declines have remained corrective, with nothing impulsive for bears to take action against.  Trade safe.

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