Wednesday, June 15, 2016

SPX and NYA: Failing Support Not Terribly Encouraging for Bulls, Will the Fed Bail Them Out?

Despite what those of you who own Gregorian calendars have been led to believe, today is yet another Fed Friday.  This means the Fed gets to waltz out and make blatantly obvious statements that pundits can then quote with great excitement and fanfare -- as if the Federal Reserve somehow knows more about things than common dummies like you and me.  For example, Janet Yellen said that the pending British referendum on whether to leave the European Onion (EO) "could have significant economic repercussions," which is like saying that the surface of the sun "could be a place that would benefit from air conditioning."

The implications of Brexit are so incredibly obvious that even feral cats understand them -- but pundits love to run wild when Yellen says something like this, presumably because it means that even she gets it.  Besides, feral cats are a wholly disenfranchised segment of the population, so it doesn't really matter WHAT they understand about Brexit, since their oppressed voices are only heard late at night when everyone but me is trying to sleep.  And what I usually say to them is: "SHUT UP YOU FERAL CATS!"  So I readily admit to being "part of the problem" when it comes to their disenfranchisement.

Anyway, I'm not entirely sure how I ended up on that tangent, although I suspect that the feral cats currently howling near my back patio may have been a contributing factor. (I'm pretty sure that Maui's feral cat population is higher than its human population!)

Getting back to the market... er... getting TO the market, since we were never on that topic to "get back to," at least not today, there is currently nothing terribly bullish about the charts.  Let's start with NYA:

Next, let's look at three different charts of SPX and see if there's anything particularly bullish in them.  First is the preferred wave count from June 8, which still sees SPX testing 2000-2020 before the next real decision point occurs:

Next is the near-term SPX chart:

Finally, the big picture trend channel chart:

In conclusion, there's just nothing particularly bullish about support failing across multiple time frames.  Can bulls suddenly put something together and reverse the whole thing?  Of course, the market can change in a heartbeat.  But as of right now, there's no reason to think that will happen -- so unless bulls start putting together something more convincing (or the Fed comes out and announces something ridiculously bullish), I'm inclined to think SPX will AT LEAST test the 2054 +/- target/inflection zone (noted back on June 10), and probably test the 2000-2020 zone.  Trade safe.

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