Monday, July 25, 2016

VIX Suggests Rally Growing Over-Extended -- plus Gold at Three Degrees of Trend

There's very little to add to Friday's update regarding equities (please refer back to Friday's charts if needed), so in an effort to provide some "added value" to my readers, we're going to take a look at a chart I haven't updated in a LONG time:  Gold.

On the chart below, I discuss three degrees of trend in gold, and the apparent position of this market relative to each degree:

The chart below is most relevant to VIX -- but VIX is often relevant to equities.  This chart suggests VIX is bottoming, which by extension suggests that the rally in equities is probably getting over-extended:

In conclusion, while bulls could always continue powering forward indefinitely, it does appear that, while a bit more near-term upside isn't out of the question, the rally will soon be due for a pull-back.  Again, do keep in mind that there will almost certainly be buy opportunities again at some point in the future -- so don't get too focused on the (presumed) pending pull-back as the be-all-end-all.  Trade safe.

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