Friday, September 16, 2016

ES Update in Leui of SPX

Well, I've been having a lot of trouble with Stockcharts tonight, although it's entirely possible that's the fault of my connection.  And/or it could be due to the recent thunderstorms, sunspots, or gremlins (yes, these are "recent" gremlins, which are much more mischievous than late gremlins).  No matter!  As they say at the Post Office:  Neither snow, nor rain, nor heat of night, nor gloom and doom, nor Janet Yellen, nor moving to a different island, nor crummy internet connections -- whichever is greater -- will stay these updates from their appointed times!  Or something like that.

Anyway, since I can't seem to get Stork Chorts working properly (in fact, "" returns a "URL not found"!  For some reason.), and many of my annotated charts have ended up looking like this:

I'm going to be a little light on charts today.  There's not really much to update on the cash charts since Wednesday anyway, since we've pretty much traded range-bound since then (please refer back to Wednesday's charts if needed).  What I will add is the same sentiment I posted to our private forum before the close on Wednesday, when I mentioned that a decent rally on Thursday looked reasonably likely (which we got), but that I'd be surprised if it stuck.

If we take a look at the current ES (the E-mini S&P futures) chart, we see something resembling a triangle.  Although this does not appear to be a true Elliott Wave triangle, it does have the requisite four alternating highs/lows to qualify as a classic TA triangle, which suggests a compression pattern:

I'd be surprised if the low near 2110 doesn't ultimately fail (which would equate to a new low in SPX cash), the question is whether the current bounce is done yet or not -- and in that regard, bears do have to be careful if there's a sustained breakout from the triangle. 

In conclusion, to simplify this as much as possible (given that this pattern doesn't really lend itself to simplicity):  If we see a sustained breakout over 2145 ES, then things get a little iffy for bears, but it's not the end of the world.  If we see a sustained breakout above 2156, then ES will probably take aim at 2165-70 next, and the whole pattern gets a bit ambiguous, and possibly dangerous (since "ambiguous" means a high-probability pattern has morphed into questionable territory), for bears. 

The underlying assumption here of course, is that, presuming the noted levels hold, then we remain in dangerous territory for bulls.

On a completely different note, on Thursday night, we had the most violent electrical storm I've ever seen in Hawaii, with several ground strikes in my neighborhood.  As the storm was approaching, I captured a photo of some of the lightning (below), which I think lends itself to being titled Paradise Lost:

Storms and iffy internet connections aside, I do hope everyone has a pleasant weekend.  Trade safe.

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