Wednesday, October 19, 2016

SPX and NYA Updates

Sometimes you can look at a near-term pattern and say, "Ah, this is obvious.  Here's what happens next!"  Other times, you feel like you need to see just a little more from the market.

In terms of the current picture, I'm still slightly leaning toward the blue 2/b path outlined last Friday, but bulls have not yet reclaimed the key resistance zone (also outlined on Friday) -- so the market does seem to be keeping its options open at the moment, perhaps "waiting" on the ECB tomorrow.  Thus, there is still no material change to the recent updates:

The larger pattern appears more clear-cut, and I still have a difficult time seeing this as anything bullish:

In conclusion, as mentioned previously, the downward wave from 2193 SPX appears incomplete, so I'm still inclined to believe that lower lows are coming.  The main question is still whether we'll follow the blue 2/b path, or if near-term overhead resistance will continue to contain the market.  Trade safe.

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