Wednesday, October 12, 2016

SPX Update: Target 1 Finally Captured

For at least the past 18 years, I've been repeating that I felt the decline from 2179.99 was impulsive, and thus due for another leg down.  It seems like longer than 18 years since I first began discussing that prediction, but another leg down finally happened yesterday.  I'm going to let the charts take it from here:

Let's take a quick look at the "obvious" bull option, then we'll look at why I'm inclined to think it's probably not playing out:

To me, the subwaves don't seem to fit the bull option too well:

In conclusion, Target 1 from 9/30 was finally captured, and the prediction for another leg down has been satisfied.  I'm still inclined to think that there's more downside pending, but bears couldn't be blamed for displaying a little caution here near the next key level of 2119.  I should add that there is one option that bottoms near Target 2 (first chart), then rallies back up all the way to test the zone near the all-time high, THEN drops back toward (or below) Target 2 again... but I'll cover that in more detail if it becomes appropriate.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment