Wednesday, November 16, 2016

SPX and RUT: What Might We Expect if the Market Breaks Through the Current Inflection Zone?

SPX has continued to remain below the all-time-high, but before we look at that (currently boring) chart, let's look at RUT, and consider the implications if the current inflection zone fails to put the brakes on the market:

The updated 60-minute RUT chart contains some discussion about a distinction that I believe is one of the most important understandings for people with an appetite for risk (present company included):

I made a slight adjustment on the SPX chart, although it amounts to a moot point if the market ends up simply barreling through the current inflection zone. 

In conclusion, SPX remains in an inflection zone, so this is the place for bears to take a stab if they're so inclined.  Yesterday presented a second opportunity at 2180, with manageable risk -- now all that's left is to watch and wait for the market to do its thing, or not.  On balance, I'm probably still inclined to think we head toward red C, but it's far from being a clear call.  Along those lines, I again feel obligated to restate how important it is to respect any sustained breakout from the market's current position, should a sustained breakout occur.  Trade safe.

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