Wednesday, November 2, 2016

SPX, NYA, INDU Updates: Finally

For what seems like the past 2,700 years, I've been repeating that I felt 2114 was not a meaningful low, and that the only question in my mind was whether it would break directly or after another sucker rally.  Yesterday finally answered that question, and also proved that 2114 was, indeed, not a meaningful low.

Due to the nature of the pattern leading into the decline, we probably have to "assume" the most bearish iteration of the wave counts -- but do be aware that the blue 2/b count on the chart below is not technically dead yet, so if the market wants to throw a final bird at everyone, it can still follow that path:

NYA is unchanged, so I left the annotation from Halloween, which echoes the call to watch for the warning signals above.  That said, if bulls can't stick save this directly, we are likely on the cusp of a significant decline:

Finally, I haven't updated this INDU chart since July, so it's interesting to see how things have panned out since the last update here:

In conclusion, the market finally validated my thesis that 2114 would break, now it's up to the bears to run with it.  The potential energy is present in this pattern for a significant decline, so we have to play it that way until proven otherwise -- but it's not impossible that the market has one last trick up its sleeve (in the form of the 2/b rally) so bears shouldn't get complacent and arrogant just yet.  Trade safe.

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