Friday, January 13, 2017

SPX and BKX Update: What Will Friday the 13th Bring for the Market?

Today is Friday the 13th, so you're probably expecting I'll make bad jokes about good luck, or good jokes about bad luck, or something.  But you'll be sorely disappointed.  My only Friday the 13th joke goes like this:

- Knock, knock.
Who's there?
- Friday the 13th.
Friday the 13th who?

And that's it, there's no punchline.  That's the whole joke, and it makes no sense whatsoever.  I think I first read it on the back of a cereal box, during an unusually vivid dream I had -- so you can rest assured I won't be telling that joke today!

Anyway, the market has continued to chop everyone up and spit them out while laughing hysterically.  The last breakout whipsawed, and the recent breakdowns have done the same.  For what it's worth, the pattern doesn't appear complete to the downside, so most of the time we'd expect another low here -- which hints that the black (C) wave might be playing out.  Here's a near-term chart in detail:

The slightly bigger picture chart below shows that red 4 has been invalidated:

BKX seems to confirm the idea that the decline is difficult to count as complete:

In conclusion, in most markets I'd be fairly confident of another new low -- in this market of the past couple months, it's hard to be fairly confident of much of anything.  At this point, I'd say the near-term onus is on bulls to prove this is something other than a near-term bearish pattern.  Again, from a bigger picture standpoint, I do expect the black wave (C) bottom (presuming that pattern is actually underway) to be a buy op.  Trade safe.

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