Monday, January 9, 2017

SPX Update: The Cheese Stands Alone

On Friday, SPX finally broke back above 2277, thereby validating 2233 as the bottom of ALL OF C (and validating my belief that this was all just a correction and not the start of anything bearish) -- but not yet eliminating the possibility that that first ABC merely marked a larger (A) wave. 

One of the blessings and curses of B-waves is that they can exceed the prior relevant high or low, which makes them the wave that bulls hate to see on a breakout, and the wave that bears hate to see on a breakdown.  The "blessing" part of B-waves is that they offer high odds that the market will ultimately turn back around and reclaim their peaks/troughs.  But they do require patience, because the nasty C-wave that follows a B-wave can and will shake most people who attempt an early knife catch.

(Note that I'm not saying the (B)-wave is what's going on here, I'm simply expanding on the commentary about B-waves in general.)

In any case, the next couple sessions should give us clues as to whether we're dealing with a simple fourth wave (red 4), or the more complex nastiness of the larger black (A)/(B)/(C).  If we see a larger impulsive down move develop, or if SPX sustains a breakdown at 2263, then the complex (A)/(B)/(C) gains some favor.

Bigger picture, there's still no change unless and until the market says there is:

In conclusion, as Market Watch would say:  "The Dow Jones Industrial Average Ordinary Mediocre Almost Barely Nearly Possibly Sort of Reached Really Super-Duper WOW OMG OMG Close to 20,000 on Friday and... Like, What Were We Talking About Again?" 

Trade safe.

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