Monday, January 23, 2017

SPX Update: Day 217... Deep within the Chop Zone

We're now three weeks into a chop zone within a still-larger chop zone... and I haven't had this much fun in a market since that time way back in high school when my then-buddy Dan got chased through the Quakertown Farmer's Market by an angry vendor.  (Dan, if you're out there:  You deserved it!)

Seriously, this chop zone is more fun than a barrel of rabid fire monkeys with functional chainsaws.  (Are "fire monkeys" even a real thing?  Well, they should be!  Err... maybe not.  The world has enough problems.)

Anyway, there's been no real change since December, which is when I first came up with the black (C)-wave count, primarily based on instinct, which has made it hard to have too much conviction about it, especially since I do ultimately expect we're still in a bull market, and the aforementioned C-wave would simply be a bull market correction (if it materializes, of course).  Yes, that was one single run-on sentence.  At least now it doesn't constitute the entire paragraph.

On the plus side, we may finally be getting close to an actual move.

Below is a more simplistic chart, along with a couple targets:

In conclusion, at this point deep within a chop zone, it just gets tough to keep these updates interesting, and to come up with anything that I haven't already said five times before.  The bottom line is that I'm still ever-so-slightly favoring the black C-wave count, but since that's always been just a gut-instinct, I'm not married to it.  I do ultimately expect we're still in a bull market, so with or without that black C-wave, higher prices are still expected in the bigger picture.  Trade safe.

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