Friday, February 10, 2017

SPX and RUT: The Off Switch

What a frustrating move this has been.  I'm longer-term bullish, and believe I've made that plain for several months, but I got suckered into thinking a short-term bearish correction was underway.  That near-term pattern as suggested has now been busted.  I had noted a price zone in the prior update where "if bulls are gonna mount a turnaround and bust the bear count, they'll probably try to do so from here" -- and do so they did.

This market continues to remind me of 2012, which was a great time to just close your eyes, hold your nose, and buy every dip, no matter how it looked or how many indicators warned you not to.  I think this is the characteristic of bull markets that causes bears to hate them so deeply -- and which has also led to famous quotes such as: "Don't confuse brains with a bull market."  In fact, at times, bull markets actually require one to set their brain to "off."

I can see a few bear options in the present pattern, but given how things have gone, it's probably foolhardy to do much more than be aware of them, at least until the market gives a strong sell signal.

The big picture chart has remained materially unchanged for several months:

Very short-term... I almost don't even want to say this... but very short-term, it's hard to see the end-of-day decline as anything other than a small impulse down.  Whether that impulse is just wave A of an inconsequential ABC -- or the start of something more consequential -- remains to be seen.

RUT appears to be at an inflection point, and if bears can't make a stand here, then bulls will likely be rewarded with some renewed rally strength.

In conclusion, bulls once again joined hands and sang a rousing chorus of Starship's Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now while busting a near-term bear count.  Meanwhile, bears are busy replacing their computer monitors, many of which were broken in various unfortunate "accidents," which bears state they don't wanna talk about.  ("You mean to say you 'accidentally' shot your monitor?  NINE TIMES?")  Other than that, the charts and commentary above pretty much say it all.  Trade safe and have a good weekend!

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