Wednesday, February 15, 2017

SPX, RUT, BKX: And the Band Played On

Janet Yellen recently gave testimony to Congress in her annual semi-annual biannual perennial softball session, during which she attempted to teach remedial math to Congress.  At least, that's what she appeared to be doing when she stated, and I quote: "2%, which is a very low number."  I didn't pay much attention to the rest, because all I was thinking at that point was: "Take THAT, stupid Congresspeople!  The only positive integer lower than 2 is 1!"

Then I thought that the next time we hear some politician yammering on about winning by 2% (or less) of the popular vote, and/or acting like a 2% victory constitutes a huge "mandate" -- well, we'll just have to remind them that "2% is a very low number according to Janet Yellen."  And also that the term "mandate" is sexist.  (Can't we just call them "dates" without needing to qualify the date's gender?)

Beyond that, I haven't bothered to do any actual research about whether or not Yellen's numbers are correct, because Dodd-Frankly, I don't really care.  I'm just glad we cleared up the confusion surrounding positive integers and dating. 


Anyway, SPX has been rallying pretty relentlessly for the past few sessions, probably because investors now realize that even if it rallies 2% a week forever, that would still constitute "a very low number."  (Hmm... the Fed's obliviousness to financial bubbles is starting to make more sense now!)

On a more serious note, I do hope that for the past few months, bears have been heeding the warnings to stand aside on breakouts. 

BKX has now captured its first blue V target:

Meanwhile, RUT is in the early stages of its attempted breakout.  I mean, sure, technically bears could turn this into an expanded flat, for a decent near-term correction (which would then remain intermediate bullish), but I still have no interest in fighting this market after consolidation breakouts.  The last few patterns have all suggested bears needed to stand aside if the market broke-out, and that continues to hold true here.  There are times you get good signals for a countertrend play (and even THOSE can be blown up during a strong trend) and if you take a shot and miss, well hey, that's just how the cookie crumbles, and you fought the good fight.  But then there are times you're only throwing your money away even attempting countertrend plays (presumably on the reasoning that "hey, technically, a countertrend move could theoretically happen!").  This would qualify as the latter.

If there's going to be a reversal, there will likely at least be a leading pattern to short against (which will then blow up anyway, if recent history is our guide!).  But the point is:  There's just no reason to front-run these types of breakouts blind.

In conclusion, SPX is testing channel resistance, RUT is about to, and BKX is testing a very old resistance level, so we could very well see some sort of reaction in the form of a correction or sideways grind -- but right now, there's nothing in the charts that says such a correction has actually begun.  To the contrary, the "standard" pattern here would continue to run for a while with only small corrections, despite resistance. 

So again, the point is: with the strength this rally has shown to date and the patterns that it's breaking out of, front-running in the "hopes" of a countertrend move could be dangerous.  That could all change tomorrow, of course, depending on what the market does next -- but even if we see a small impulsive decline, at best, bears' hopes would only be for a short-term reprieve, as the bigger picture remains bullish.  Trade safe.

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