Wednesday, March 22, 2017

SPX and RUT: Downside Target 1 Captured

It's been an excellent month for the preferred count.  At the beginning of the month, SPX captured November's standing 2400 target to the point (good for about 200 points of profit), then reversed.  Since that target capture, the preferred count has continued pointing toward lower prices, and the chart published a week ago was an exact dead-on hit:  The market rallied, the rally turned where projected, and the decline has now captured the first downside target zone.  That projection alone represented another nearly 70 points round trip -- so now here we are wondering if the market will find support soon.

As of this moment, it's foolhardy to call a bottom, because most markets closed on or near the lows of yesterday's session.  That doesn't mean we can't bottom directly, it just means that it's ill-advised to call a bottom when the market goes out on the day's low -- just as it would be ill-advised to go to Vegas and bet your entire life savings on one spin of the roulette wheel (with the understanding, of course, that "ill-advised" doesn't mean you couldn't win anyway!).

Thus, as of right now, we have to see something more from the market to know if it's going to bottom here or not, and today's charts will have to reflect that current reality.  Most of the time, I'd say that this pattern at least LOOKS like it needs to unwind some micro-fourth and fifth waves before it could bottom -- so I'd typically expect to see at least another marginal new low or two, (which, if we see the decline slow, would also serve the function of absorbing some of the inertia from yesterday's sharp drop -- and absorbing that inertia is the first step before it can be reversed).

RUT's pattern has taken on a potentially dangerous look, and bulls will need to put the brakes on this as soon as they can if they wish to stop this pattern from acting as a head-and-shoulders.  Bulls would like to see a sustained whipsaw of the neckline, followed by a breakout over the falling blue trend line.

In conclusion, the market has captured the upper edges of the first downside targets, but there's no clear sign of a bottom yet, so at least marginally lower prices are still likely.  With the chart's current appearance, we also cannot yet rule out the possibility that a deeper correction is in progress.  So, just as in the prior update: lower prices still look likely -- the main question is how much lower, so we'll just have to watch how the market reacts to this first target zone.  Trade safe.

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