Wednesday, March 15, 2017

SPX Update: A Bit More from the Market

SPX has chopped sideways since last update, and the pattern now makes me inclined to believe that the odds of another leg down are better than 50%, so I have updated the charts accordingly.  This is still a pretty tight call, but we probably have to lean this direction unless and until SPX sustains a breakout over the all-time-high.

I have also adjusted the upside targets for the possible (smaller) second leg up, which apply if SPX clears the 50% Fib:

NOTE TYPO -- Obviously, upside targets are 23xx, not 22xx!

The intermediate chart shows my preferred path, give or take a few points:

In conclusion, this remains a tight call, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a larger second leg down appears to be the most probable resolution to this pattern.  I am a bit less confident of the smaller second leg up that might precede it -- but the larger second leg down does look to be of reasonable probability.  Trade safe.

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