Friday, March 10, 2017

SPX Update: Downside Targets Captured

There is at least one material change from last update... in the last update, I didn't feel at all confident that the decline was over, and it turned out it wasn't.  Now at least I feel it has the chance to be over.  I'm still not certain if it will form a b-up and c-down, but it could at least be complete as the entire 4th wave if it wants to.  A bit more detail and some possible resistance zones on the chart below:

If this turns into a more complex fourth wave, then we'd be alert for a trip toward the lower red "4?" after a bounce completes.  Note the perfect back-test of the old red channel:

In conclusion, the decline has now cleanly captured the targets I drew on March 3, so if this is the entire fourth wave, then we've likely seen the bottom and will head toward blue Bull: 3 next.  The downside target capture is notable in the sense that the market has shown a lot of strength prior to this decline (and strong markets often FAIL to reach downside targets), so if the market starts to struggle with the upside resistance zones, then do at least stay alert to potential for a more complex fourth, and a trip toward the second red 4 on the intermediate chart.    Trade safe.

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