Wednesday, April 19, 2017

SPX and BKX: If I'm Being Redundant, Then Please Allow Me to Repeat Myself...

SPX is still holding 2322, so there's still no change to the outlook, as summed up (yet again!) in the last update:

I have given the benefit of the doubt to that low [2322 SPX] in light of the prior strong uptrend, but if SPX sustains trade beneath that level, then we'll have to at least consider the potential that the wave we've seen to this point could be a very bearish nest of 1's and 2's.  So, what I've been saying for a while remains true:  All bull bets have to be off below that level.

If SPX holds that zone, then it's a moot point, of course.  But we're close enough to it now that it needs to be kept firmly in mind.

For the near-term moment, it looks to me like SPX wants to continue rallying with at least one more wave up, but in order to confirm that instinct, the next level bulls need to claim is 2349.  Notice yesterday's perfect back-test of the upper trend line on the aforementioned black falling wedge/diagonal:

Now, I'm absolutely not trying to scare bulls off from playing here, because the best profits are usually made when things look scary.  I am mainly reiterating my warnings in case a breakdown materializes in-between updates -- which is why I keep driving home the point that 2322 appears to be an important level.  Of course, a breakdown of 2322 would not guarantee bearish follow-through, and the market could always break that level and whipsaw immediately -- but we always need to be aware of the pattern's potential in order to make educated decisions.

No change yet to the bigger picture, of course:

In conclusion, the market's still in the same basic position it's been for all the recent updates:  as long as 2322 holds, I will continue to give the prior uptrend the benefit of the doubt and lean very slightly bullish.  But if SPX sustains a breakdown at that level, then there is significant bearish potential energy in this pattern.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment