Monday, May 1, 2017

SPX and INDU: Caution Time for Bulls

I mentioned last week that the closer we got to the all-time-high, the more cautious I would get.  I'm officially shifting to near-term neutral for the moment, because I'm getting mixed signals from the market right now.  While a long term top doesn't look probable yet, I think there's at least a reasonable chance that the larger wave 4 may become more complex, which would take us back below the March lows.

Very near-term, it also appears that Friday's low will fail, so if we rally at the open, it might present an opportunity for bears.

Let's also take another look at the INDU "bear count":

In conclusion, I am very cautious regarding the bull case right now.  I suspect we're going to have at least a further near-term correction, and that could well turn into a larger c-wave (3/c on the INDU chart).  Trade safe.

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