Monday, May 22, 2017

SPX Update: Through a Glass Darkly

Well, Friday's rally probably ran a bit too deep for a fourth wave, so either we're looking at a second wave rally, or we're dealing with the bull alternate count.  I still have a hard time seeing BKX making a new high from here, and it looks like it probably needs another leg down, but BKX is significantly below its prior swing high, which means it could rally without making a new high even if SPX were to do so.

Given the position of the market, I think today's update is best served with one simple, yet detailed, chart of SPX:

In conclusion, bulls have put up more of a fight than I think many of us expected, and appear to have tacked on an extended fifth to Friday's rally just for confusion's sake.  While this is hardly the clearest wave in history, the SPX chart above nevertheless valiantly attempts to outline the options in detail.  Presently, there appear to be three waves off the low, so if bears can make a stand here, then this could mark a complete ABC rally.  Trade safe.

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