Monday, May 8, 2017

SPX Update: Why No One Loves Fourth Waves

In Friday's session, bulls did what they needed to for their "next step." So, although another near-term down/up sequence remains possible, the recent move adds more confidence that if there is another immediate down move, it would likely only be the C-wave of a more complex fourth wave, and thus a buy op.  Because one additional thing bulls accomplished Friday was to negate any chance that red wave-a down was a first wave -- so that gives them more of a "all-clear" that more upside is coming, either directly, or after the completion of a more complex fourth.

We're in essentially the same position in the bigger picture, since this is also a fourth/fifth wave sequence, so the position of the market is the same.  One of the reasons fourth waves can be so difficult to trade is because they tend to be complex, while at the same time sometimes giving only the most meager of hints before embarking on another complex move.

In conclusion, the options remain the same as they were last update, with more complex fourth waves possible at multiple degrees, but no real way to predict that without a bit more information from the market.  Trade safe.

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