Monday, August 7, 2017

INDU and SPX: Zzzzzzzz...

There's no real change since last update.  INDU has continued rallying like they're going to stop selling large caps soon, prompting everyone to "get in while they can."  This fits with my (unpopular) theory that INDU is within an extended fifth wave -- extended fifths tend to be pretty relentless.  Until they end, at which point they reverse just as relentlessly.  Then they bounce just as relentlessly, because for a brief moment, everyone is convinced they just saw the buying opportunity of the century... but the bounce stalls at the retest of the prior high, and they then collapse even farther and faster. 

But I'm getting ahead of myself here, because we're still in the "relentless rally" stage (obviously), and INDU has continued to lunge toward Target 2.  There's still nothing to add since the comment of August 2 (or, really, since July 14):

SPX has continued chopping anyone who's been bold enough to trade this mess into tiny bits (which it has apparently been feeding to INDU):

NDX is not shown, but it looks like it might keep jumping around in a range as well.  It also still looks like the bears' best hope for another leg down, so I still suspect that if we get a decent bounce toward NDX's ATH, it's not a terrible selling op with a tight stop against the zone just north of the ATH. 

In conclusion, there's nothing to add to the last few updates.  Most markets have been making chop suey out of both bull and bear short-term traders, which is what I was worried they would do, which is why I haven't been giving much in the way of near-term projections lately (I'd rather not give a projection if there's nothing even remotely clear to project -- otherwise, it gives people the impression that something is much more tradeable than it actually is).  Beyond that, there's not much else that's fit to print just yet.  In time, though, there will be.  Until then, patience is still the order of the day.  Trade safe.

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