Friday, October 13, 2017

SPX Update: Market Wants to Keep the Near-Term Complicated, but the Bigger Picture is Still Clear

Well, last update did the best it could with the available information, and I did warn that it was complicated, and that I didn't think the rally was complete yet.  The market's behavior since last update suggests a rare "running flat" pattern, which missed its downside targets and had me believing there was a little more near-term downside coming.

It's still possible for a bit more near-term downside, as shown below, but bears have to continue to realize that the trend is still up until proven otherwise, and act accordingly.

No change on the bigger picture chart, but I do want to remind everyone that there is still no change from the annotation of October 4.

In conclusion, the near-term path from last update was apparently a bust, but the bigger picture outlook for the rally to continue was correct.  Keep in mind that if this rally goes into the extended fifth discussed on October 4, then it will actually accelerate higher, and the target in the mid-2600's will become a reality.  This is one of the reasons I'm continuing to advocate against front-running if you're bearishly-inclined.  The time for that will come again, but this isn't that time. 

If we do head lower shortly after the open, then that will suggest the possibility of an increasingly-complex flat -- but would not yet suggest an end to the rally.  Trade safe.

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