Monday, February 12, 2018

INDU and Nasdaq Updates

Over the weekend, I prepared a rather lengthy and detailed update, which discusses the Federal Reserve and their role in all this... but then I decided I'm not happy with it yet, so I'm going to save it for Wednesday (or possibly Friday -- lengthy updates make good weekend pieces).

Instead, we're going to quickly cover two charts, and will save the educational discussions for next time.

First is the Dow Jones Industrial Average's "spec" count, which has so far played out very well.  I've adjusted it slightly, in tune with the recent price action.  If INDU blows through the blue b-wave high with conviction, then we may be unwinding red B immediately.

Next is INDU's big picture trend line chart:

And finally, we do want to continue to keep the Nasdaq Composite in mind, since it turned south right at a HUGE inflection point.

In conclusion, while many markets have bounced at long-term trend lines, I suspect we're still pointed lower over the intermediate term.  That said, it is worth noting that it would be arrogant to simply assume that will be the case -- if markets continue to hold those trend line back-tests, then we may have to give the bulls more credit than we're currently giving them.  Trade safe.

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