Monday, April 23, 2018

SPX Update: Bull Options Appear Limited

The market continued lower from Wednesday's noted inflection point, and while this isn't a clear-cut pattern, we probably have to assume "bearish until proven otherwise," because the bull potentials of this type of pattern are somewhat limited.  "Proven otherwise" would consist of a sustained breakout over 2718.

Do note that the most bearish long-term potential possible has us heading substantially below the black "or 5" on the chart above.  The most bearish potential would have the first leg of the decline as wave 1 of red C/3, and the bounce as 2 -- which would put 3 of C/3 on deck, which could even take us back into the 19XX price range.  That's merely a potential at this stage, but something bulls need to be aware of in the even there's a sustained breakdown at the A/1 low.

In conclusion, the only pattern that seems to fit all the pieces of the recent rally reasonably well is the aforementioned ending diagonal, which continues to suggest a rather direct trip below 2585.  We'll continue to assume as much unless/until we see some reason to doubt that -- the main signal being sustained trade north of 2718.  Trade safe.

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