Wednesday, April 18, 2018

SPX Update: Market Reaches Inflection Zone

Last update noted that the pattern seemed to require higher prices one way or another, and offered the following clues:

1.  If we break out over the red wedge on the chart above, bears will want to watch for a whipsaw to help confirm the diagonal. 

2.  If SPX were instead to break out and hold that breakout, then that would instead suggest the bull nest (option 1) and a very strong rally. 

As we can see on the chart below, SPX did not whipsaw the breakout, which was the signal for bears to stand aside for the moment.

In conclusion, we have now reached an inflection zone, where the ending diagonal could roar back to life if it so chooses.  This does not mean that it will, only that it has the option to, since the ending diagonal remains a potential until 2740, but will be invalidated north of 2740.  While a sustained breakout over 2740 does not invalidate all near-term bear patterns, if that happens, it would suggest that we should probably continue looking for the preferred count's long-anticipated trip north of 2801, at least until proven otherwise.  Trade safe.

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