Monday, May 14, 2018

SPX and INDU: Near-term No Man's Land

First off, I need to note that there were more new member activations than I anticipated, so if I haven't gotten to yours yet, I apologize.  I'm working through them; please allow me an extra couple days to complete that process.

In regards to the market, last update expected a reversal lower, but the market flummoxed that prediction and has now landed itself smack in the middle of the huge trading range that has been unfolding since January.  Trading ranges are notoriously challenging, because the more often a market traces through the same range, the weaker support and resistance become within that range.  Which means that trend line breakouts and so forth that take place inside the range are less meaningful than they might be during a trending market, and thus harder to read into.

This is one of the reasons I switched my near-term stance to "borderline neutral" a couple weeks ago -- because in this case, not only are the trend lines are losing meaning, but the near-term wave structure itself is very difficult to get a bead on.  Bigger picture, I remain bearish, but near-term, this is still "anything goes" territory:

On the chart above, the main bullish factor would be the repeated bounces off the blue and red long-term trend lines, but do keep in mind that the market has found support there three times now, which is usually the magic number.  There is no pattern called a "quadruple bottom" (or top) for a reason:  The fourth test of a zone usually breaks it.

While we do have to be aware of the fact that support has held, one of the reasons I remain bearish on the bigger picture is INDU's chart, and its apparently-incomplete fractal:

In conclusion, the near-term is still up for grabs, and I don't really have a confident prediction of what the market will do in today's session.  We may finally be unfolding the long-anticipated complex 2/B to north of 2801 SPX, or we may be building a bear nest, or an even more complex correction.  Nothing is off the table for the near-term.   Bigger picture, I continue to lean bearish.  Trade safe.

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