SPX has continued to move in the "two steps forward, one step back" style that is common inside diagonals (it's also common in bull nests! -- right up until they finally break out and run relentlessly higher), and thus the market has continued to annoy pretty much everyone. There's no material change from the past couple weeks of updates:
It is worth a mention that this is what we've been expecting the market to do since way back in early February. I lost track of how many times I warned about a double retrace and that "all roads lead to (2)/B." The market refused to take anything resembling a straightforward path, but it's interesting how closely it ended up following a chart I originally published back on February 6.
Here's the chart from February 6, showing my "best guess" blue preferred path (keeping in mind that I never intend these to be "time projections" unless specifically noted -- I simply work within available chart space):
And here's what actually happened/is happening:
Thus, while this move hasn't exactly taken the straightforward path, it has followed the broader path that we laid out immediately after the January/February mini-crash remarkably well.
From that perspective, this move should come as no surprise.
As to the present: Basically, at this point, bears don't want to see SPX sustain trade north of 2825, because (as noted) that would invalidate the diagonal. Now, a break of 2825 does not invalidate all bear patterns, but given that a bull nest remains possible, bears should avoid complacency. Once we see the first impulsive decline, we can consider calling a top -- until then, the market can continue its upward climb. Trade safe.
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