Friday, June 15, 2018

SPX Update: The First Glimmer of Hope for Bears

A few updates back, I wrote that we'd await an impulsive decline before calling a top, so I'm not officially "calling a top" here, because there's no way to confirm anything this early, but I will note that we're finally starting to see some signs that the rally may be out of steam, or very close.

I would anticipate that Wednesday's low will be broken on the downside in the next session or two.  I can't recall the last time I posted anything along those lines, because this is the first time I've seen a solid near-term pattern pointing lower in weeks.

Now, I can't rule out that said pattern will end up being a micro fourth wave, but having a pattern that seems to point lower even for the near-term is the first real signal of any kind that bears have had in a while.

In conclusion, it's too early to know if this is the final end of the rally, or just a brief pause (ideally the end would still be close either way) -- but since we've been anticipating that the rally is a terminal rally, then this could be the first building block into a larger decline.  In other words, that outcome is at least a possibility from here.

And "at least a possibility" is more hope than bears have had in weeks.  Sometimes the most precise way to express one's views in a sloppy pattern like this is to say that the market is likely "closer to a top than to the bottom" at this point.  Trade safe.

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