Wednesday, June 20, 2018

SPX Update: It's a Mad Mad (Mad Mad) Market

On June 13, I wrote:

One would think that if this is indeed still a bear pattern, then it may complete today.

At worst, that date marked a decent turn and a tradeable high, so we'll call that a hit.  At best, something more bearish has begun.  (Or vice-versa if you're in the bull camp, of course.)

Due to the pattern off the high of June 13, we still can't confirm whether (2)/B has entirely completed or not.  It's worth noting that SPX found support at the lower boundary of the diagonal, and diagonals sometimes have a habit of tacking on another wave or two at the end to really mess with everyone.  Because the decline has not taken an impulsive form so far, we cannot yet rule that out.

In conclusion, SPX reached a downside inflection point yesterday, and bears would like to see that low broken to begin to add confidence to the immediate bear case.  Until then, we cannot rule out some additional upwards chop.  Trade safe.

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