Monday, July 2, 2018

SPX and BKX Updates

No resolution since last update, thought the steep late-day selloff on Friday might be of some concern to bulls.  So far, this hasn't behaved like anything other than the predicted downtrend.

Until last week's low breaks, though, there's no definitive resolution.  On that note, IF last week's low does break down, bulls will likely find themselves in a "pay me now or pay me later" situation, where even if there's a rally shortly thereafter, it would imply a corrective rally:

BKX is probably still a good canary here:

In conclusion, while all indications are that the downtrend is probably not complete (though a near-term bounce is always possible), so far there's still no definitive resolution to the pattern, so neither side should get complacent here.  Trade safe.

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