Monday, July 30, 2018

SPX and INDU: Hints, Allegations, and Things Left Unsaid

Last update I noted that "the good news is out now," due to the old expression "buy the rumor, sell the news."  Sell the news is exactly what the market did on Friday.  And while we do not yet have an impulsive decline, the shape of that wave does lend itself to being a bit more encouraging for bears than anything else we've seen yet in July.

On INDU's chart, you can clearly see that the decline so far is only three waves.  In fact, it looks like it may not even be three complete waves down yet, so my first inclination is that the bottom is not yet in, even if this is just to be a minor correction -- and of course, certainly not if it's the start of a larger turn.  Point being, either way, my first instinct is that there are still lower prices due:

In conclusion, we do not yet have an impulsive decline for confirmation, but things look more promising for bears than they have all month.  How long that lasts remains to be seen, of course.  Trade safe.

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