Wednesday, August 29, 2018

SPX and INDU Updates: Questionable Intentions

SPX has remained above its prior all-time high, but has not yet back-tested that zone (which would be a more true test of whether this is to be a head-fake or a lasting breakout).  If this is a true bull wave, there is of course no law that a back-test is required, but given how long the market stayed below that zone, it's not unreasonable to anticipate the potential. 

If this is a bull wave, we would expect to begin to see a stronger upside run begin soon.  The wave since the February low has been choppy and full of overlap, which is more typical of a b-wave.  If it's the bull count, then that overlap was a bull nest of first and second waves, and it needs to begin a strong upside run in a third wave.

INDU currently still remains below its all time high.

In conclusion, due to SPX breaking the all-time high, we do have to allow for the possibility that this rally is part of a meaningful bull wave -- but as yet, the pattern remains less-than convincing.  That could always change tomorrow, of course, and, conversely, bears still have little to sink their teeth into.  Thus it remains, if nothing else, a market with "questionable intentions," at least for now.  Trade safe.

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