Monday, August 13, 2018

SPX Update: Bears on the Cusp of Control

Last week's rally was, so far, strongly rejected at the test of the zone near the all-time high.  The decline since then is only three waves at this point, so it's not yet impulsive (required to confirm a turn), but my instinct is that it will become impulsive in fairly short order.  Friday's low appears to be the dividing line between a corrective decline that would probably need to have ended already and at least a near-term turn that would require another wave lower. 

Again, my gut puts me in favor of the latter, but the charts haven't declared that from a technical perspective yet.

In conclusion, if bulls can hold Friday's low, then they could rally up to new highs from here.  I'm inclined to think that they won't, and that we'll probably at least test the zone near black "Bull: c" before it's all said and done.  A rally to fill the gap (near 2850) today wouldn't surprise me, but I'd be inclined to bet against that rally (with a fairly tight stop, of course) if it occurs.  Bears need another small wave down to turn the decline from 2863 into an impulse, and there are, of course, no guarantees that they'll get it.  Trade safe.

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