Monday, August 20, 2018

SPX Update

No material change since last update.  Due to the potential expanded flat that I warned about on August 8 (and which did ultimately pan out from slightly higher levels), there are no meaningful upside price levels in SPX until the all-time-high.  Which is interesting, inasmuch as it seems like a lot of folks have grown quite bullish here -- beneath a major resistance zone that's contained the market for half a year.

Near-term, the expanded flat means the market can rally back above 2863 if it wants and that would not gain it any technical advantages.  The all-time high is the level SPX must sustain trade and closes north of, for bulls to gain confidence.

In conclusion, trade above 2863 would reset the smaller red "bear 1/a" and "bear 2/b," but not the larger red (2)/B.  Trade north of the all time high would reset the large red (2), but not the red B (see recent expanded flat from black bull a to black bull c to understand why).  There's really not much to add here beyond that.  The wave since the April low has been a mess and hasn't really taken the form I'd like to see in terms of clarity, but since this retest of the high has been something I've anticipated since the February lows, the market has given no reason to shift stance.  Yet, anyway.  Trade safe.

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