Monday, September 10, 2018

SPX Update: No Real Change

Last update expected lower prices, which we got.  We've now reached a near-term downside inflection point, at the lower red trend line:

The pattern into Friday is anything but clear, so I'll give my "best guess," but I can't have high confidence in this at the moment:  My best guess is that we'll rally a little on Monday, but that the overall decline isn't complete.  A sustained break of the lower red trend line could spark a larger sell-off.

In conclusion, the decline since the all-time high hasn't been terribly clear.  It's either a very complex corrective wave, or it's the warm up to a more significant decline, but presently there's no way to sort those two options.  As I said, my best guess is that lower prices are still needed, but my confidence is limited.  For now, we'll continue under the assumption that Red B is complete, but we'll do so cautiously.  Trade safe.

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