Wednesday, November 7, 2018

SPX Update

There was no update on Monday due to an unexpected power outage that lasted several hours, but I noted on our forum on Monday that there was a decent chance that Friday's decline was wave c of an expanded flat -- meaning the expectation would be for a new high for this wave.  This morning, it appears that's what we're going to get.

As I warned back on Wednesday, where it was already apparent the rally would have more legs than we had seen since the start of the decline:

There are some clear resistance zones along the way, any of which could put the kybosh on the rally -- but by the same token, it could run farther and faster than most bears are expecting.  The challenge for bears is always "not to give back all the profit they just earned."  I suspect when the rally is over, that will be reasonably clear.

Accordingly, we're currently not too hung up on targets, because there are many potential targets for this wave.  Instead, I've noted the upcoming resistance zones (note that last week's rally stalled just a point past the noted 2750-55 resistance zone):

In conclusion, there are a lot of questions as to the intentions of this rally, though it is finally nearing its first inflection zone, and will soon have enough waves to be counted as a POTENTIALLY complete corrective rally.  The challenge is that we're not certain exactly what waveform the market wants here (for example, this could only be wave a/1, with a b/2 correction and another large leg up still to come), so we'll continue to take it as it comes.  Trade safe.

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