Friday, December 28, 2018

SPX and INDU: Bear Market Bounce, or the Start of Something More?

Last update, we talked jokingly about "perma" (bulls/bears)-- and the way to avoid becoming a "perma" is to recognize that the market is a dynamic mechanism, constantly in flux.  Things can and do change on a dime, so we'd better be nimble enough to recognize as early as possible when that may be happening.  We are in such a phase right now.

SPX did make a very slight new low since last update, and then it bounced as if it hit a catapult.  The strength of this rally is not unheard of for a "bear market rally" -- however, the fact that it began at a long-term trend line, and the fact that it continued past first resistance should give bears at least a dose of caution.

As of right now, it's not time to entirely abandon the bear case JUST YET, because the rally is only three waves in structure.  But bears need it to stay that way.


In conclusion, if this rally is a fourth wave, then bears probably need to keep it as a 3-wave corrective structure, and likely shouldn't allow too much higher.  If this develops into a five-wave structure, then we will have to give more consideration to the idea of a more lasting bottom.  So yes, I'm a little ahead of the curve talking about this -- but after all, that's the name of the game.  Trade safe.

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