Monday, December 17, 2018

SPX Update: Target Capture; No Material Change

Last update prognosticated that the market would likely head lower directly, with the minimum target suggested as "the low end" of the zone between 2584 and 2620.  Friday saw SPX reach as low as 2593, which certainly qualifies as the low end.

Since 2583 remains intact, the question from last update is unchanged.  If this is a near-term bullish pattern, then it could bottom in this general vicinity and run north of 2675, with the area near 2700+/- as one possible target zone.  If this is the uber-bearish nested third wave, then we could still bounce a little bit, but the market would be skating the edge of a steep cliff.  The next few sessions should answer these questions, but bears might want to be at least a little cautious here near the 2583 low.

Bulls, of course, would want to show extreme caution on a sustained breakdown of 2583.  Nested third wave declines can be, as R.N. Elliott said, "a wonder to behold," so discretion is definitely the better part of valor where nested thirds are suspected.

Beyond the target capture, there's not much to add.  If bulls want a more complex second wave (either at black degree or red degree on the chart above), then they could begin that run soon (keep in mind that both patterns are ultimately still bearish over the longer term).  If bulls are ready to throw in the towel immediately, then the bearish potential energy in this pattern is significant.  As noted, the first step for bears is a sustained breakdown at 2583.  Trade safe.

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