Friday, January 11, 2019

SPX Update: Short and Sweet

We are in the zone of at least a near-term inflection point.

This may also be an intermediate inflection, as there are potentially enough waves up to mark a complete (or nearly complete) ABC rally.  There are two challenges here, though:

1.  It's possible that yesterday's rally only marked wave I of 5, in which case we still need micro iii/iv/v of 5, which would likely take us toward 2650ish before it's all said and done
2.  We can't be certain that and "ABC" is the market's goal this juncture.  It may want a larger impulse, which would still need blue 4 and 5 to complete.

In conclusion, a breakout in today's session would likely suggest the rally continue for at least a couple more sessions -- but no breakout leaves bears at least some near-term options (either for a developing 4th wave lower, or for the end of the rally).  Trade safe.

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