Friday, March 15, 2019

SPX and NDX: Minor Inflection Point

Last update noted that "Bear C" appeared to be complete in SPX, which implied a new swing high was forthcoming, and SPX broke the prior swing high (2816) with ease during the session.  The charts also indicted resistance just beyond that level, and SPX proceeded to tag that resistance and has remained stalled since then.

On the chart above, we can see that, in the recent past anyway, this resistance zone has been fairly formidable -- SPX was rejected once here in October, twice in November, and once at the beginning of March.  The more resistance (or support) is tested, the weaker it becomes, because each time the market tests such a level, more sellers (or buyers, for support) are used up, theoretically leaving fewer participants to sell or buy that zone next time around.

NDX also tagged its noted resistance zone, and also stalled:

In conclusion, the market is testing an important resistance zone, which makes this something of an inflection point.  If bulls can power through and hold above, then they could get a new near-term lease on life.  If they can't, then we can't say the charts didn't warn of the possibility, and bears might get themselves a larger correction.  Trade safe.

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