Friday, May 10, 2019

SPX and INDU: Market Reaches Next Inflection Zone

I'm not actually crazy about this pattern, because there are several ways to parse it.  Strangely, the micro waves within the wave have been reasonably clear and predictable, but the larger macro wave off the all time high in SPX is not.  There's one way to count the pattern that says yesterday was the bottom of wave C/3 -- which would mean bears need at least one more low for the decline to be considered as a larger impulse.

Let's look at the charts:

INDU big picture:


In conclusion, SPX fell through the first inflection zone and ran right to the second.  There's one option that says SPX completed 3 waves down yesterday, which could mark the bottom of either C or 3, and that it needs one more new low to be considered an impulsive decline.  For now, I think that's the option I'm going to lean toward, but given that there is a lot of ambiguity in the SPX chart, I definitely want to reexamine this pattern over the weekend.  I'm not crazy about the pattern at this juncture, but it is what it is.  Trade safe.

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