Wednesday, June 12, 2019

SPX and INDU: Market May Have One More Trick Up Its Sleeve

(Please note that we've had a rash of new sign-ups for the forum, so if you've recently signed up, please be patient, and hopefully all the new accounts will be activated by Monday's session.  Also, YOU need to create the account, choose your username, and go through the signup process to create that account -- which will then be activated if you've followed all the steps.  I don't create usernames, etc.)

The market has run a little higher since last update, right to the first area where the blue c label was for the past few weeks -- but stalled during yesterday's session.  My first read (which is usually, but not always, the "right" one) yesterday was that yesterday's high was a b-wave, with the subsequent decline (which hadn't even occurred when I made that read -- so in real-time it was the "presumed pending decline") being an impulsive c-wave.  I posted the chart below (in real-time) early in yesterday's session:

The overnight futures (which the above 24-hour SPX chart includes) have since run almost exactly to the blue (C) projection on the chart above (2874 and pennies).  Below is the updated 24-hour chart as of a few minutes prior to today's cash open:

So this gets pretty tricky now, because we DO have an impulsive decline, but if the read above is correct, then that impulse is wave C of an expanded flat -- which would mean things are about to get whippy -- perhaps with a fake-out breakdown near the low, then a run back toward/beyond Tuesday's high, which could then mark the completion of wave 5 of C and reverse AGAIN heading lower... or worse, another b-wave high, another c-wave low, THEN the fifth wave higher completes around the time of the Fed meeting, only for the market to pull the rug out.

That's one option -- I'll do my best to keep up with it as it unfolds.

Because it's one of the few "logical" spots to watch (given the multiple ways the market can screw everyone up here), I've highlighted the rising black trend line on the chart below as the first semi-meaningful zone:


In conclusion, we are in the ballpark where c of 2/B could complete, but the market may have a few more tricks up its sleeve before it's ready to call it quits (and do keep in mind that the alternate count will NOT quit).  We do have an impulsive decline off yesterday's high, but my first instinct was that it would be wave C of an expanded flat -- which means a retest/best of that high is still needed -- however, it's not cut and dried, and I'd say that's maybe 55%/45%.

In other words, this first impulsive decline (during yesterday's session) could VERY WELL mark the end of C -- it's not at all a clear call, nor (right now) is it what I'm leaning toward.

This is one area where swing traders have a bit of an advantage over short-term traders, as the market may do everything in its power to mess up short-term traders before this is all over.  We'll do our best to track it as it unfolds.  Trade safe.

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