Friday, July 26, 2019

SPX and INDU Updates

In the prior update, I was inclined to lean toward "up, then down" and we did get further upside, though I had been hoping for a stall shy of 3018, which was instead slightly exceeded... then yesterday, we did see some downside, but not enough (yet) to complete the near-term pattern I've been leaning toward.

I'm leaning toward the above pattern due to the action a few days ago in ES (the e-mini S&P futures).  ES made a new low where red B/2 is on the chart above, which suggests the expanded flat as shown.  Do keep in mind that while blue (C) does not need to run to 2945-50 as shown, it would normally at least be expected to break the blue (A) wave low. An expanded flat would then, likewise, suggest a reversal from that low back to a new high.  Meaning that, at present, there's nothing to suggest the larger uptrend has ended yet.

The first step for bears on the chart above would be to sustain a break at the red and black trend lines.

INDU hasn't been playing along with SPX at all lately, and failed to make a new ATH when SPX did:

In conclusion, in the bigger picture, nothing has changed from last week, and the market is still mucking about with the larger inflection point.  Near-term, I'm inclined to think we open today's session higher but that the odds are decent we then reverse toward blue (C) as shown on the first chart.  I am solely basing that call on the futures, however, and something cash is able to ignore the futures, so I can't be 100% on that... but we'll deal with other options if/when we need to.  Sustained trade beyond 3030 would cast doubt on bears receiving the above short-term reprieve.  Trade safe.

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