Monday, August 19, 2019

INDU and SPX Updates

While I was uncertain if one more slight new low would be needed, Friday's rally makes it appear more likely that the higher degree wave (B or 2) did indeed bottom on Thursday (which is just odd enough that one day I may take the time to explain WHY it's odd) but either way, it seems the larger viewpoint (which was looking for a bottom in the general zone of a retest) was correct.

The next challenge levels for bulls appear fairly clear:

SPX has a similar confluence as its first near-term hurdle (note: TYPO -- the red X confluence is near 2925+/-, not 2825):

In the bigger picture, we're back to the black trend line, which, a little strangely, the market largely ignored the first time, at least in INDU:

In conclusion, if Friday's bottom was a B-wave, then this rally will ultimately end up being retraced, and SPX could aim as low as the 2400s.  If the bottom was ALL OF a complete correction off the all-time-high, then new highs are on deck.  At the moment, I'm leaning VERY SLIGHTLY toward the B-wave, but this is an extremely tight call, and we shouldn't be surprised if the market ends up running to new highs from here.  First step for bears will be to create an impulsive decline.  Trade safe.

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