Monday, August 12, 2019

SPX and INDU: To Fourth or Not to Fourth? That is the question.

I don't particularly like this market right now.  We're still muddling about in between a major inflection point and a minor inflection point.  Normally around this time, I'm telling bears to "await an impulsive decline" (and usually that warning means the market will rally for a while) -- but for some reason, I'm not feeling that in this situation.

We are in one zone where a fourth wave -- IF this is a fourth wave -- could terminate soon.  It could support another high before doing so -- after the prior steep decline, the potential range of a fourth wave is wider than usual.

SPX is flirting with the black uptrend channel again:

In conclusion, there are now roughly enough waves for a completed fourth wave rally if that's all the market wants here.  Obviously, if last week's low was the bottom of a complete ABC correction, then there will be no fourth and fifth waves to new lows -- but if the market is attempting to form an impulsive decline, it WILL still needs another new low.  This is a particularly tough moment because of the larger inflection point at the recent all-time high, which (being an inflection where things could go either way) refuses to give context as to which option the market itself prefers.  Thus all we can do is mind the inflection points and wait for the market to provide stronger guidance.  Trade safe.

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