Monday, September 30, 2019

SPX Update: New Low Captured, But Pattern Still Not Yet Resolved

Last update I mentioned that the micro pattern suggested that a new low below 2953 was probably still needed in SPX, and it made that new low during Friday's session.  The thing is, it appears to have done so in a three-wave structure.  This means that if it continues to bounce, we might be looking at ANOTHER b-wave low, which would later need resolution with a new low below 2946.  If it instead keeps dropping directly, we could be seeing either a bear nest or the fifth wave (since 2976, the presumed bottom of wave 1/A down from 2989, has not been overlapped yet).

Intermediate/long-term, there's still no change:

In conclusion, while there's still no change to the intermediate/long-term, the near-term pattern does suggest that the downside is still not complete.  And that could in turn point to pending potential problems for the larger waves (remains to be seen).  The main near-term question at the moment is whether SPX will bounce back above 2990 before continuing to decline, or if it will decline directly.  Trade safe.

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