Friday, October 4, 2019

SPX and INDU: Bulls Hold Support, So Far

Yesterday saw a near-term washout lower, followed by a reversal into the close.  In doing so, SPX tested its next important trend line and managed a whipsaw of the breakdown:

That appears to be three waves down from last month's high, so bears will need to force a breakdown at yesterday's low to turn that corrective decline into an impulse.  The strength of the bounce suggests bull will at least get a test of 2939-49 first (though they first have to clear the blue base channel just overhead).

INDU likewise held its next major support zone (red):

In conclusion, the strength and momentum of yesterday's bounce usually leads to at least a two-legged bounce, so it would e unusual for bears to regain immediate control without a fight from bulls first (even if this is to become a true impulsive bear wave; and there's no way of knowing at the moment whether that will happen or not).  Given that there are now three potential complete waves down, we simply can't rule out the possibility that the decline is over.  Trade safe.

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