Wednesday, October 9, 2019

SPX and INDU: First Downside Targets Captured

Last update noted that:

"We're now into the next resistance zone, which stretches from current levels up to about 2962ish."

And noted that a rejection could lead SPX back toward 2900ish.  SPX then rallied up to 2960, was rejected, and decline (yesterday) to 2893.

The next question is whether that's it for the decline -- but my best current guess is that the decline isn't over yet.

Nothing to add to INDU's long-term chart, just posting it for reference:

A reader recently asked what a "bear nest" is, so I'd like to address that briefly.  A bull or bear nest is a series of subdividing first and second waves.  So a bear nest is 1-2, i-ii (or more), to be followed by the internal iii, then the larger 3, then finally 4 and 5 (presuming it's an impulse).  Bear nests and bull nests are valuable to spot because the pending third wave is typically the longest and strongest wave of the move.

In conclusion, last update was a hit, but the decline looks like it may still have farther to run.  We do have to continue to keep in mind the option that the decline will turn into a impulse, which would mean that it would ultimately head below 2822, with 2760-70 on the radar.  First step for bears, of course is to break the October lows, and that's not a given yet.  Trade safe.

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