Friday, November 1, 2019

SPX Update: A Good Opportunity for a Quick Pattern Lesson

Last update, we discussed the remaining temporary bear option, and since then, the market has shown no sign of being interested in that option -- yet, anyway.  Yesterday saw what appears to be a fairly obvious b-wave high, indicating that the trend remains up (at least for the near term).  I often discuss expanded flat patterns (since they're a favorite of the market itself!), so I charted this one for educational purposes.

The telltale sign of a b-wave high (or low) is its three-wave structure.  A completed impulse wave, which is needed for a clean top or bottom, will always be five waves instead of three.  When you see three waves into a new high (or low), then expect that the ensuing reversal is only temporary, and the market will retest/exceed the b-wave high (or low).

(In the forum, my short-hand for everything I just explained is "Last high [or low] looks like a b-wave.")

While that b-wave tells us what to likely expect over the near-term, it doesn't answer any questions about the bigger picture yet... so no change here.  But my instinct remains that the market has done enough goofing around over the past two years, so I suspect that once it clears this whipsaw zone, we'll see a solid trending rally.  I'm not married to that, so will watch for other signals, but that's still my lean at the moment.

In conclusion, beyond the b-wave, no material change to the past few updates.  Trade safe.

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