Friday, January 3, 2020

Brief, Unscheduled Stop

First off, I hope everyone brought in the New Year safely!  I hadn't planned on doing an update today (was planning to return Monday), but I decided I do want to publish a quick chart.  This is the combined SPX (cash) and ES (futures) "24 Hour" SPX chart:

There's a chance that the most recent high is a b-wave.  This makes the blue horizontal line pretty critical for the near-term.  If the high is a b-wave, then the blue horizontal likely marks the bottom of wave-c down from that high, and thus the completion of an expanded flat.

In other words, we could bottom right at the open (give or take a little; the blue line is below the probable opening price).

Conversely, if the wave down from the all time high is instead wave A or wave 1 down, then we would expect another wave down of roughly equal length (~57 points +/-), with the potential for an extension (~92 points +/-) -- thus the blue line is rather important, at least from a near-term perspective, and this gives readers some levels to watch if it's broken (simply use the above numbers subtracted from the prevailing high) in a sustained manner.

To be fair, we probably need to see a more substantial bounce to have more faith in those targets (in the event of a sustained break) -- a decent bounce would help add confidence to the idea that a new low is a new WAVE (meaning wave C or 3 down), as opposed to simply being the final subwave to wrap up the aforementioned expanded flat.

That's about all I have to add at the moment -- I'll return Monday with a more complete update.

That said, I would like to take this rare occasion (the turn of a decade) to wish all my readers and their loved ones a healthy and prosperous New Year; and also to thank everyone who has shown support during this past decade or so -- your kindness is truly appreciated.

Trade safe, and see you Monday.  :)

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